First, the topline, consistent with pretty much every other pollster: separation is holding steady at or around the 20 to 25% mark. But public opinion research recently made available to Public Interest Alberta (support the Together- NO! Campaign here ) offers a few clues about persuasion and turnout, and those clues should feed into a progressive strategy funneling toward October 19. Pollara's data also shows what conservative-aligned Third Party Advertisers should be doing to contribute their fair share to the campaign.
Among decided Albertans, 76% would vote to remain a province of Canada and 24% would vote to begin the legal process toward a binding separation referendum. That’s pretty consistent with other pollsters and Pollara’s findings over the past few months. The overall numbers (factoring in the undecideds) are 70% Remain, 23% Begin The Separation Process, and 7% not sure. The lead holds everywhere: 75-17 in Edmonton, 73-20 in Calgary, and 65-29 in the rest of the province.
93% of Remain voters say they are sure of their choice. Separation voters are softer, with 27% saying they might change their mind.
Among voters who are sure of their choice, 84% of Separation voters say they will definitely vote, against 69% of sure Remain voters.
Federalists, in other words, are far too relaxed for my liking about their whereabouts on October 19 and during the advance polls. Separatists are more determined. The intensity problem is up to the federalist side to solve, because a 52-point lead means nothing if 15 points of intensity run the other way.
The persuasion work that remains belongs to Conservatives
Opinions on this referendum are mostly set, with one important exception. Among Remain voters, 24% agree they would consider voting for separation to send a message to Ottawa, even though they do not want Alberta to leave. If every one of those protest-curious voters followed through, the separation vote would reach 41%. That ceiling has not moved since March.
The people inside that 24% are not provincial New Democrats or federal Liberals; federalist progressives are locked in. The protest-open voter is a frustrated conservative federalist, and the job of talking that voter off the ledge falls on conservative leaders and conservative validators. The Conservative establishment has persuasion work to do inside its own coalition, and nobody else can do it for them.
When voters are told a Yes vote makes Alberta more likely to eventually become the 51st state of America, the net effect is 50 points toward less likely to support separation.
The sharper wording outperforms the softer version. Framed as becoming part of the United States, protest-open voters barely move, at net +2 less likely, while the 51st state framing moves the same group to net +14. It is the strongest persuasion tool with the voters who are still persuadable.
It remains to be seen whether conservative TPAs are brave enough to use this framing. Progressive groups will have to carry it in their own communications, even though they have a harder time than Conservatives reaching persuadable Albertans.
Ottawa Liberals like to imagine a pipeline announcement gives them Moses-like power to part the seas. The truth is it will do a bit of lifting for those considering a protest vote - if those voters are informed of the deal - but it isn’t necessarily a mobilization tool. In the field from June 20 to July 2, with a sizeable Alberta sample of 1,007, Pollara finds a major federal-provincial pipeline announcement before October 19 produces a net effect of only -6 on support for separation. Fully 49% say it would have no impact on their views, 23% would be less likely to support separation, and 17% more likely. Among UCP voters the net effect is +2, essentially zero.
A pipeline announcement mostly reinforces federalists who were already voting Remain. It does not necessarily convert separatists, but it may be useful in persuading the “send a message” cohort to either stay home or vote Remain. No one should be under the impression that Ottawa’s work is 1) now done with the pipeline announcement, and there is no need for them to participate in a real and resourced campaign or 2) that Danielle Smith won’t move the goalposts to some other “demand” of Ottawa.
Making good use of the pipeline announcement is up to voter identification and mobilization by Conservative federalist groups, but even they will find it only goes so far, and Canadian patriotism and identity are likely to get as good if not better mileage. The pipeline message is of little broad-based utility to the majority of Albertans. For the majority of Albertans, straight appeals to patriotism, history, and Canadian identity (including Medicare) are the mobilization arguments most likely to ensure the separation question is soundly defeated.
The enemy is complacency
Albertans know their neighbours are, for the most part, patriotic Canadians. 61% expect the province to vote to stay and only 12% expect a vote to separate.
Another 21% think it could go either way. But those folks aren't separatists: nearly three in four of the go-either-way crowd aren’t strong separatists. They are mostly Stay-side and undecided Albertans who are nervous, over-indexing among women at 26% and the protest-open at 34%. Meanwhile, the expectation of a separatist win is concentrated on the Yes side believing in its own victory, reaching 40% among committed separatists.
This sets up two big problems. First, most Albertans assume the outcome is safe, so without a ground-game mobilization effort they may not feel the urgency to vote. Quebec federalists made that assumption in October 1995 and nearly lost the country.
The second problem is conspiracy theories gripping the already-disinformed separatist far-right. The day after Election Day will likely come as a surprise to many separatists, who live in a hermetically sealed information environment that feeds them a constant stream of conspiracies, lies and grievances. Conservatives who have fed the Alberta grievance machine for more than a decade may want to think about their own responsibility in trying to head some of this off before the conspiracies swirl on October 20. Elections Alberta and the Government of Alberta also have a role to play in heading off this foreseeable and appalling set of circumstances.
Turnout is the whole campaign
84% of Albertans say they are likely to vote and 66% say they definitely will, but the distribution of that intensity runs against Remain. Seniors are at 90% likely turnout while Albertans under 35 sit at 46%. White Albertans are at 75% and rural Alberta at 71%, while immigrants are at 47% and non-white Albertans at 48%, nearly 30 points behind, and both groups lean more Remain than average. Union members at 62% and Edmonton at 63% both trail the provincial figure. The committed Separatist side turns out at 84% among its sure voters against 69% for sure Remain voters.
There is a likely turnout gap among newcomers, young Albertans, union members and Edmontonians. That gap can be closed on doorsteps, in the workplace, in faith communities and through civil society organizations those voters already trust. Advertising in this campaign is capped by law at $607,000 per registered third party, and the separatist side got to the fundraising lead first.
Public Interest Alberta’s Together-NO! campaign is a four-month, province-wide organizing effort built on roughly a thousand volunteers, regional organizing and a pledge-to-vote hub. Together- NO! is organizing to defeat all ten referendum questions, especially the questions related to importing US-style immigration policies. The campaign is organizing to ensure Albertans reject the separatist policy playbook as well as the Stay/Leave question.
Various other groups (Forever Canadian, Alberta's Voice, the Calgary Alliance for the Common Good, Our Alberta Advantage, faith communities and newcomer-serving agencies) also map directly onto the low-turnout, Remain-leaning groups in this data. The polling says the argument is already won, but old-fashioned organizing will determine whether the people who agree with it show up.
Field window: June 20 to July 2, 2026
Sampling: Pollara conducted an online survey of 3,202 adults in Canada's four western provinces.
Alberta sample size: 1,007
Alberta margin of error: ± 3.1% (had this been a probability sample)
Weighting: Data has been weighted to reflect the age, gender, and education composition of each province, based on the most recent census figures. Quotas were set to ensure subregions are properly represented (e.g. Calgary vs. Edmonton vs. rest of Alberta).
Reliability note: While online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error, the margin of error for a probability sample of this size would be accurate to ± 1.3%, 19 times out of 20 (this figure is for the total Western Canada sample; the ± 3.1% above is Alberta's MoE estimate).
Compliance: Pollara Strategic Insights is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), and this research was conducted in compliance with CRIC standards.
My concern is Elections Alberta up to the task. They haven't exactly gained my confidence with how they handled to Water Not Coal petition. I am afraid Smith and her supporters will do whatever they can to discourage, disinform, disenfranchise and make voting difficult. One just has to look south of the border to see the skullduggery that goes on. She seems to be a fan of that sort of thing.
I'm very leery of this referendum by the UCP and Danielle Smith. They play too many games with our democracy as it is, let alone make a big mess out of anything else they touch, while trying to circumvent the law, and doing boondoogles that can even squander billions of dollars. Zero respect for them.